Pick'em EV Calculator

Calculate expected value for PrizePicks, Underdog, and Pick6 entries using sportsbook odds. Find out if your picks are profitable.

$
1
52%
2
52%
3
52%
Entry Expected Value
$-2.91
-29.1% ROI per entry
Avg Hit Rate
52.2%
Picks
3
Expected Payout
$7.09
Win Prob
14.2%

Per-Pick Analysis

1Pick 1-11552%
2Pick 2-11552%
3Pick 3-11552%

How the Pick'em EV Calculator Works

Enter the sportsbook odds for each pick in your entry. The calculator converts those odds to fair probabilities (after removing estimated vig), then calculates your total expected value against the platform's payout multiplier. If the expected payout exceeds the entry cost, the entry is +EV.

Finding +EV Pick'em Entries

The most common source of pick'em edge is when a platform's prop line differs from the sportsbook consensus. If sportsbooks price a player's points over/under at -130 (58.5% implied) but the pick'em platform treats it as 50/50, you have an 8.5% edge on that leg. Multiple edges across legs compound into significant entry-level EV.

Per-Pick Analysis

The calculator breaks down each pick's contribution to your total EV. If removing one pick would increase your EV by switching to a lower pick count, the analysis highlights this. Sometimes a 3-pick entry beats a 4-pick entry when one leg has weak probability, even though the multiplier is lower.

Frequently Asked Questions

How do I calculate pick'em expected value?
Enter sportsbook odds for each pick to derive implied probabilities. The calculator multiplies all leg probabilities together for an all-or-nothing entry, or uses binomial probability for flex entries, then compares expected payout to entry cost. Positive EV means the entry is profitable long-term.
Where do I find sportsbook odds for my picks?
Check DraftKings Sportsbook, FanDuel Sportsbook, or BetMGM for player prop odds. These odds reflect the market consensus probability for each pick. Enter the American odds (like -115 or +105) for each pick into the calculator.
What does a -115 line mean for pick'em EV?
A -115 line implies approximately 53.5% probability after removing vig. If the pick'em platform offers this prop at even odds (50/50), you have a slight edge. The calculator removes standard vig from sportsbook lines to estimate fair probabilities.
Are my PrizePicks picks profitable?
Profitability depends on whether your average per-leg probability exceeds the break-even threshold for your entry type and pick count. Enter your sportsbook odds above to see the expected value of your specific entry.
Why does removing a pick sometimes improve EV?
Pick'em multipliers increase with pick count, but so does the difficulty. A 4-pick at 10x might have better EV than a 5-pick at 20x if one of your picks has weak probability. The per-pick analysis shows each pick's contribution to total EV.
How does vig affect pick'em EV?
Sportsbook odds include vig (juice) that inflates implied probability by 2-5%. The calculator removes estimated vig to derive fair probabilities. Without vig removal, you would underestimate your true probability and overestimate EV.
What is a good EV per entry?
Any positive EV is good. Professional bettors typically target entries with +5% to +15% ROI. A $10 entry with +$1.50 EV (+15% ROI) is a strong play. Entries below +2% ROI may not be worth the variance.
Can I compare EV across platforms?
Yes. The same picks will have different EV on different platforms because multipliers vary. A 4-pick entry might be +EV on one platform but -EV on another depending on the payout structure. Check the platform comparison tool to see which platform offers the best multiplier for your pick count.

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