Entry Size Optimizer

Find the optimal number of picks and entry type for your hit rate. Compare EV across every configuration on PrizePicks, Underdog, Pick6, Sleeper, and FanDuel.

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Optimal Configuration at 55% Hit Rate
6-Pick Power Play
+$1.07 EV (+10.7% ROI)

All Configurations Ranked by EV

RankTypePicksMultiplierWin/Payout %EVROI
1BESTPower Play640x2.8%+$1.07+10.7%
2Flex Play6—44.2%+$0.75+7.5%
3Flex Play5—59.3%+$0.50+5.0%
4Power Play520x5.0%+$0.07+0.7%
5Power Play410x9.2%$-0.85-8.5%
6Power Play23x30.3%$-0.92-9.2%
7Flex Play4—39.1%$-0.93-9.3%
8Flex Play3—57.5%$-1.15-11.5%
9WORSTPower Play35x16.6%$-1.68-16.8%

Best Config by Hit Rate

Hit RateBest ConfigurationEV
45%3-Pick Flex Play$-3.77
50%2-Pick Power Play$-2.50
55%6-Pick Power Play+$1.07
60%6-Pick Power Play+$8.66
65%6-Pick Power Play+$20.17
70%6-Pick Power Play+$37.06

Finding Your Optimal Pick'em Configuration

Not all pick counts are created equal. A 3-pick Flex entry can have better EV than a 5-pick Power Play at the same hit rate because the partial payout protection compensates for the lower multiplier. This optimizer calculates EV for every available combination on your selected platform and ranks them from best to worst.

How to Read the Rankings

The table shows every entry type and pick count combination sorted by expected value. Positive EV (green) means the configuration is profitable at your estimated hit rate. The "Best" and "Worst" labels highlight the extremes. Use the sensitivity table to see how the ranking changes as your hit rate shifts.

Matching Configuration to Your Bankroll

The optimal configuration should also match your bankroll and risk tolerance. Higher-pick Power Play entries have higher variance even when +EV. If your bankroll is limited, the Pick'em Bankroll Calculator recommends entry sizing for each configuration.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the best number of picks on PrizePicks?
The optimal pick count depends on your per-leg hit rate. At 55% hit rate, 3-pick Flex entries typically have the best EV on PrizePicks. At 62%+, 4-pick Power Play often becomes optimal. The optimizer calculates the best configuration for any hit rate.
Should I play 3 or 5 picks on PrizePicks?
More picks means higher multipliers but exponentially lower probability. At a 55% hit rate, 3 picks hit about 16.6% of the time while 5 picks hit only 5%. The optimizer compares EV across all pick counts so you can see the exact trade-off.
Does the optimal pick count change by platform?
Yes. Different platforms offer different multipliers, which shifts the optimal configuration. Underdog pays 6x for 3 Standard picks vs 5x on PrizePicks, making 3-pick entries relatively more attractive on Underdog. Check each platform separately.
Is Flex or Power Play better for more picks?
Flex becomes relatively better at higher pick counts because partial payouts occur more frequently when the chance of sweeping all picks drops below 5-10%. A 6-pick Flex entry has meaningful partial payout probability while 6-pick Power Play requires an unlikely perfect sweep.
How does hit rate affect the optimal configuration?
Higher hit rates favor higher pick counts and all-or-nothing entry types because the probability of sweeping compounds more favorably. The sensitivity table shows how the optimal configuration shifts as hit rate changes from 45% to 70%.
What ROI should I target with pick'em entries?
Professional DFS players target 5-15% ROI on pick'em entries. Even +3% ROI is meaningful over hundreds of entries. The optimizer shows ROI for each configuration so you can identify which setups meet your target.
Why is 2-pick often not recommended?
Two-pick entries pay 3x on most platforms, requiring a 57.7% hit rate per leg to break even. This is a high threshold. Meanwhile, Flex entries with 3+ picks offer partial payout protection that effectively lowers the break-even requirement.
How often should I re-check my optimal configuration?
Re-evaluate whenever your tracked hit rate changes by 3% or more, when a platform changes its payout structure, or when switching between sports seasons. Player prop markets vary in difficulty across sports.

Related Tools

Pick'em Payout Calculator Flex vs Power Play Analyzer Pick'em Bankroll Calculator