DFS Variance Simulator

Monte Carlo simulation showing DFS bankroll trajectories over time. See probability of ruin, expected drawdowns, and confidence intervals for your contest mix.

Overall ROI+5%
GPP %
Cash %
H2H %

What Monte Carlo Simulation Shows You

Monte Carlo simulation runs hundreds of possible futures for your DFS bankroll. Each path represents one possible timeline of wins and losses. The spread of paths shows the range of realistic outcomes. This is not a prediction but a probability distribution: it shows what could happen, how likely each outcome is, and how much variance you should expect.

How DFS Variance Differs by Contest Type

GPPs have approximately 4x the variance of cash games. This means a GPP-heavy player experiences longer losing streaks and bigger winning streaks. The simulator blends variance based on your contest mix to show realistic trajectories. A player running 80% GPPs will see dramatically wider outcome bands than a cash-game grinder.

Using the Simulator to Set Expectations

The most valuable insight is the 5th percentile outcome, which represents a realistic downside scenario. If your 5th percentile outcome after 100 nights shows a 50% drawdown, you need to be psychologically prepared for that possibility. Use this to size your bankroll and nightly spend appropriately.

Frequently Asked Questions

How many DFS entries do I need to know if I am profitable?
At minimum 500-1,000 entries across a single contest type to get a statistically meaningful sample. GPPs require even more due to higher variance. The simulator shows how long it takes for skill to overcome variance at different ROI levels.
What is DFS variance?
Variance measures the spread of outcomes around your expected result. High variance means bigger swings between winning and losing nights. GPPs have approximately 4 times the variance of cash games, meaning you experience longer winning and losing streaks.
What is risk of ruin in DFS?
Risk of ruin is the probability of losing your entire bankroll. With proper sizing and positive ROI, ruin probability decreases over time. The simulator calculates this based on your bankroll, nightly spend, ROI, and contest mix.
Why do I keep losing even with good lineups?
Short-term results in DFS are dominated by variance, not skill. Even a player with 10% ROI will have losing weeks and sometimes losing months. The simulator shows the range of possible outcomes to set realistic expectations.
How does contest mix affect my variance?
GPPs add roughly 4x more variance than cash games per dollar wagered. A player who puts 80% in GPPs experiences dramatically wider swings than one who plays 80% cash. The simulator lets you see the exact impact of shifting your contest allocation.
What does the median outcome mean?
The median is the middle outcome: 50% of simulations end above it and 50% below. The median is more useful than the mean for DFS because a few massive GPP wins can skew the mean upward while the typical experience is closer to the median.
What is a confidence interval?
A 90% confidence interval shows the range where 90% of simulated outcomes fall. If the 90% CI after 200 nights is $600-$2,400, you can expect your bankroll to land somewhere in that range with 90% probability.
How do I reduce my variance without reducing ROI?
Shift contest mix toward cash games and head-to-heads. Reduce multi-entry GPP exposure. Play smaller fields. Avoid max-entry GPPs where you are competing against sharps with more entries. Each of these reduces variance while preserving your edge.

Related Tools

DFS Bankroll Calculator DFS Contest EV Calculator Bankroll Simulator