DFS Contest EV Calculator

Calculate the expected value of any DFS contest. See rake impact, break-even cash rate, and long-term ROI projections for DraftKings, FanDuel, and Yahoo.

0%50%100%
Expected Value Per Entry
-$0.26
-1.3% ROI
Break-Even Rate
24.4%
Your Edge
-0.4%
Rake
14.2%
$28360
Prize Pool
$171,640
Long-Term Projection (10 entries/week)
Weekly
-$2.61
Monthly
-$11.32
Yearly
-$135.93
EV Sensitivity by Cash Rate
Cash RateEV/EntryROI
14%-$6.27-31.3%
16%-$5.12-25.6%
18%-$3.98-19.9%
20%-$2.84-14.2%
22%-$1.55-7.7%
24% (you)-$0.26-1.3%
26%+$1.03+5.1%
28%+$2.31+11.6%
30%+$3.60+18.0%
32%+$4.89+24.4%
34%+$6.18+30.9%
Platform Rake Comparison — GPP (Tournament)
PlatformRakeEV/EntryROI
Yahoo DFS10.0%+$0.70+3.5%
FanDuel12.0%+$0.24+1.2%
DraftKings14.2%-$0.26-1.3%

What Is Expected Value in DFS?

Expected value (EV) is the average profit or loss per entry over the long run. A contest with +$2.40 EV means you profit $2.40 on average per entry. This does not mean you win every time. It means that across hundreds of entries, your average result converges toward that number. Understanding EV is the foundation of profitable DFS.

How Rake Affects Your Bottom Line

Rake is the silent killer of DFS profitability. A 14% rake on GPPs means you need to beat the field by 14% just to break even. The difference between DraftKings 14.2% and FanDuel 12% GPP rake compounds significantly over time. For a player entering $200 per night, that 2.2% rake difference is over $1,600 per year.

GPP vs Cash Game: A Mathematical Comparison

Cash games have lower rake and lower variance, making them better for building a bankroll. GPPs have higher rake but offer life-changing upside. The optimal strategy depends on your skill level and bankroll. Most professionals allocate 60-70% of their action to cash games and 30-40% to GPPs, adjusting based on their edge in each format.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the rake in DFS?
Rake is the percentage of entry fees that the platform keeps as revenue before distributing the prize pool. DraftKings charges approximately 14.2% rake on GPPs and 10% on cash games. FanDuel charges 12% on GPPs and 9% on cash games. Lower rake means more money goes to players.
How much rake does DraftKings charge?
DraftKings charges approximately 14.18% rake on GPPs and single-entry tournaments. For cash games (double-ups, 50/50s, and head-to-heads), the rake is approximately 10%. This means for a $20 GPP entry, about $2.84 goes to DraftKings and $17.16 goes to the prize pool.
How do I calculate DFS expected value?
DFS expected value equals your probability of cashing multiplied by the average payout, minus your entry fee. For cash games: EV = (cash rate x payout) - entry fee. For GPPs, weight your probability of finishing in each payout tier by the tier's payout amount.
What cash rate do I need to be profitable?
In a 50/50 with 10% rake, you need to cash about 55% of the time to break even. In a double-up with 10% rake, you need to cash about 55% of entries. In GPPs with 14% rake, your break-even cash rate depends on field size and payout structure.
Are GPPs or cash games more profitable?
For most players, cash games offer more consistent returns due to lower variance. However, GPPs offer higher potential returns for skilled players who can consistently build unique lineups. The key difference is variance: a profitable cash game player wins steadily, while a profitable GPP player wins less often but wins bigger.
How does field size affect EV?
Larger field sizes in GPPs mean more top-heavy payout structures and higher variance. Your cash rate stays the same, but the distribution of payouts shifts. A 10,000-person GPP pays 1st place much more than a 1,000-person GPP, but the bottom of the cash line pays less.
What is overlay in DFS?
Overlay occurs when a tournament's guaranteed prize pool exceeds the total entry fees collected. For example, a $100K guaranteed GPP that only collects $80K in entries has $20K in overlay. Overlay is free EV for all participants and makes the contest more profitable than usual.
Is DFS a positive EV game?
DFS is negative EV for the average player because of rake. However, skilled players who cash at rates above the break-even threshold can achieve positive EV. The key is contest selection (lower rake), bankroll management, and consistently building better lineups than the field.

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