Expected Loss Calculator

Expected loss equals your bet size multiplied by the house edge multiplied by the number of hands played. For example, $25 bets at blackjack (0.5% edge) for 4 hours at 70 hands/hour equals $25 × 0.005 × 280 = $35 expected loss.

Expected loss is the mathematical average over thousands of sessions. In any single session, standard deviation means you could win significantly or lose much more. The confidence intervals show likely outcome ranges.

Blackjack with basic strategy (0.5% edge at $25/hand) costs roughly $8.75/hour. Video poker with optimal play can be even cheaper. Slots at $1/spin with 500 spins/hour and 6% edge costs $30/hour.

Expected loss scales linearly with bet size. Doubling your bet doubles your expected loss per hour. A $50 blackjack player loses twice as much per hour as a $25 player at the same table.

The 68% interval shows the range your result will fall within about two-thirds of the time. The 95% interval covers nearly all realistic outcomes. These intervals are calculated using the game's standard deviation.

It depends on the game and bet size. A $10 blackjack player loses about $3.50/hour, cheaper than a movie. A $100 slot player at 10% house edge loses $5,000/hour, far exceeding any entertainment cost.

Play games with lower house edges, reduce bet size, or shorten sessions. Blackjack with basic strategy, craps with odds bets, and full-pay video poker offer the lowest expected losses per dollar wagered.

Standard deviation measures how much your actual results vary from the expected outcome. Higher standard deviation means more volatile sessions — bigger wins and bigger losses relative to expectation.