Break-Even Calculator
Find the exact probability needed to break even at any contract price, including platform-specific trading fees. Compare breakeven thresholds across Kalshi, Polymarket, Crypto.com, FanDuel, and DraftKings.
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Breakeven at 50¢
| Platform | Trading Fee | Eff. Cost | Eff. Payout | Breakeven Prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | $0.0200 | $0.5200 | $1.00 | 52.00% |
| Polymarket USBEST | $0.0005 | $0.5005 | $1.00 | 50.05% |
| DraftKings Predictions | $0.0200 | $0.5200 | $1.00 | 52.00% |
Breakeven Probability by Contract Price
Kalshi
Polymarket US
DraftKings Predictions
How It Works
The break-even probability is the minimum win rate you need for a trade to be profitable after fees. It equals your effective cost (contract price + trading fee) divided by the effective payout ($1.00 for standard contracts). Platforms with lower fees require a lower break-even probability, giving you more edge on the same contract.
Frequently Asked Questions
What does break-even probability mean in prediction markets?
Break-even probability is the minimum win rate needed for a trade to produce zero profit after accounting for all fees. If a contract costs 50 cents and the platform charges a 2-cent fee, your effective cost is 52 cents, so you need a 52% win rate to break even.
How do platform fees affect the break-even point?
Each platform calculates trading fees differently. Kalshi uses a formula based on price variance, Polymarket charges a flat percentage, and others use per-contract flat fees. These differences mean the same 50-cent contract has different break-even thresholds on each platform.
What is a crossover point in the breakeven chart?
A crossover point is a contract price where the cheapest platform changes. For example, Platform A might have lower breakeven probability below 40 cents, while Platform B becomes cheaper above 40 cents. The chart highlights these transitions.
Why does the break-even probability differ from the contract price?
The contract price equals the implied probability only in a zero-fee market. Real platforms charge trading fees that raise your effective cost, meaning you need a higher actual probability than the price implies to make money.
Which platform has the lowest break-even threshold?
It depends on the contract price. Platforms with percentage-based fees (like Polymarket at 0.1%) are cheapest on low-priced contracts. Platforms with formula-based fees (like Kalshi) may be cheaper near 50 cents where their fee curve peaks.
How should I use break-even probability in my trading?
Compare your estimated probability of an event to the break-even probability. If you believe there is a 60% chance but the break-even is 53%, you have positive expected value. The wider the gap between your estimate and the break-even, the better the trade.
Does this calculator include settlement fees?
Yes. The calculator factors in both trading fees and settlement fees where applicable. Most major US platforms currently charge zero settlement fees, but this tool will reflect any changes as platforms update their fee structures.
Can I compare more than two platforms at once?
Yes. Select as many platforms as you want using the platform toggle buttons. The results table and crossover chart update to show all selected platforms simultaneously, making it easy to identify which platform offers the lowest breakeven at your target price.